King County Forecast Model
King County Forecast #5 - Q3 2018
Starting in September of 2017, OEFA began operating a King County forecast model to forecast county economic and demographic variables including personal income, population, building permits and others. The model is based on work by Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc., which produced regional and county level economic forecasts until June 2017. After more than 24 years of publishing The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster (PSEF), Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen closed their office, but generously provided a portion of their model so others could carry on producing forecasts for the local area. We'd like to thank Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen for making this resource available to the public. OEFA is actively extending the model to cover other variables of interest and will continue to update and maintain this model to the best of our abilities, so that those interested in the local economy have access to this valuable planning tool.
OEFA updates and publishes the forecast each quarter and posts the updates here on our website. Our primary inputs will be national-level forecast data from IHS Global Insight as well as county and regional data from the Employment Security Department, the Washington State Department of Revenue, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.